Polymarket
Decentralized (Polygon) · Unregulated (non-US)
✓ Highest volume for crypto, sports, politics markets. $1B+ monthly volume.
⚠ No US access for most markets. Crypto wallet required.
Venue Comparison
Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Limitless — Which prediction market is best?
The best prediction market depends on what you're trading. Polymarket leads on volume for most markets. Kalshi is the US-legal choice. Limitless and Myriad often price the same events differently — creating cross-venue gaps that Mantis detects automatically.
All 6 venues compared
Mantis aggregates live data from all six major prediction market venues. Here's how they compare on the dimensions that matter most to traders.
| Venue | Type | Regulation | Liquidity | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Decentralized (Polygon) | Unregulated (non-US) | Very High | Crypto, Politics, Sports, Macro |
| Kalshi | Regulated Exchange | CFTC-regulated (US legal) | High | Fed/Macro, Economics, Finance |
| Limitless | Decentralized (Gnosis Chain) | Unregulated | Medium | Crypto, Niche Events |
| Myriad | Decentralized (Abstract Chain) | Unregulated | Low-Medium | Sports, Token Markets |
| PredictIt | Regulated (CFTC no-action) | US legal (limited) | Medium | US Politics, Policy |
| SX Bet | Decentralized (Sports) | Unregulated | Medium (sports) | Sports Only |
Venue details
Kalshi
Regulated Exchange · CFTC-regulated (US legal)
✓ US legal for most traders. Best for macro/Fed markets. Deep institutional liquidity.
⚠ Narrower market selection than Polymarket. More compliance overhead.
Limitless
Decentralized (Gnosis Chain) · Unregulated
✓ Often unique markets not on Polymarket. Low fees on Gnosis Chain.
⚠ Much lower liquidity than Polymarket. Thin order books on most markets.
Myriad
Decentralized (Abstract Chain) · Unregulated
✓ Sports-focused. Some unique token markets. Good for sports arbitrage.
⚠ Low liquidity. Often prices differently from Polymarket on same event.
PredictIt
Regulated (CFTC no-action) · US legal (limited)
✓ US political markets. Real-money, CFTC-allowed. Long track record.
⚠ Per-contract investment limits. High fees. Narrow market selection.
SX Bet
Decentralized (Sports) · Unregulated
✓ Deep sports book outrights. World Cup winner markets live.
⚠ Sports only. Limited crypto/political coverage.
Why cross-venue pricing gaps exist
When the same outcome trades at different prices on Polymarket vs Kalshi, it's because:
Different user bases
Polymarket is dominated by crypto-native traders. Kalshi attracts more macro-focused institutional participants. Each brings different information sets and risk preferences.
Different resolution oracles
Polymarket uses UMA as an oracle. Kalshi resolves internally. If traders disagree about how an event will be resolved (e.g., Fed decision wording), they price it differently.
Liquidity and market-makers
Thin liquidity on one venue means prices can diverge longer before arbitrage corrects them. Mantis's get_arbitrage tool finds these gaps and the execute_url closes them.
FAQ
Is Polymarket better than Kalshi?
For most crypto and political markets, Polymarket has deeper liquidity and more market selection. For macro/Fed events and US traders who need a regulated venue, Kalshi is better. The same market often trades at different prices on both — Mantis shows which venue has the best line for any specific question.
Which prediction market is best for US traders?
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and accessible to US traders. PredictIt is also US-legal under a CFTC no-action letter. Polymarket is technically off-limits for US persons on many markets. Mantis searches all venues and notes any jurisdiction restrictions on market detail pages.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different probabilities?
Different user bases, market-maker models, liquidity providers, and resolution oracle sources cause persistent pricing gaps. The same "Will the Fed cut rates?" contract can be 2–5 percentage points apart between Kalshi and Polymarket. These gaps represent real edge and are what Mantis detects automatically.
Can Mantis route me to the best-priced venue automatically?
Yes. Type any question at mantiss.store and Mantis queries Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. The result shows best price, liquidity, and a direct trade link for each venue. The MCP API (route_market tool) does the same for AI agents.
What are the fees on Polymarket vs Kalshi?
Polymarket charges 2% on trades (built into spread). Kalshi charges 2–7% maker/taker fees depending on tier. PredictIt charges 10% of profits and 5% on withdrawals. Limitless and Myriad are typically lower fee on a per-trade basis. Mantis's get_arbitrage tool includes fee normalization when you add ?include_fees=true.
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