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January Meeting
Jan 28–29, 2026
Macro Prediction Markets
Federal Reserve Rate Decisions — 2026 Prediction Market Odds
Will the Fed cut rates before year-end? Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless are pricing the probability of rate changes at each 2026 FOMC meeting — often at different levels. Mantis shows the cross-venue consensus in one search.
2026 FOMC Meeting Calendar
Each meeting date is a potential market resolution point. Prediction markets for rate cuts are active on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless ahead of each decision.
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March Meeting
Mar 18–19, 2026
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May Meeting
May 6–7, 2026
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June Meeting
Jun 17–18, 2026
Upcoming
July Meeting
Jul 28–29, 2026
Upcoming
September Meeting
Sep 15–16, 2026
Upcoming
October Meeting
Oct 27–28, 2026
Upcoming
December Meeting
Dec 15–16, 2026
Why prediction markets for Fed decisions?
Real-money consensus
Polymarket and Kalshi aggregate real-money probability estimates from thousands of participants. Unlike polling, prediction market prices move instantly when CPI, NFP, or Fed speech changes the outlook.
Compare Polymarket vs Kalshi
The same rate-cut contract can be priced 2–4 points apart between Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket (crypto-rails). Mantis flags these differences automatically.
Track the full rate path
Beyond individual meetings, markets exist for cumulative cuts in 2026, terminal rate targets, and Fed chair tenure. Search any macro question at mantiss.store.
What drives 2026 rate decisions
The four inputs that move the FOMC meeting markets. Each reprices cut odds as new data lands between meetings.
Inflation (CPI/PCE)
Core PCE trending toward 2% gives the Fed room to cut; sticky inflation keeps it on hold. Each CPI print moves the meeting markets.
Labor market
Rising unemployment or weak payrolls pull cut odds up (the Fed’s other mandate); a hot jobs report pushes them down.
Growth & recession risk
A growth scare can trigger faster, deeper cuts; resilient GDP argues for patience.
Financial conditions
Credit stress, equity drawdowns, or a strong dollar shift the Fed’s reaction function between meetings.
Related macro & rates hubs
Macro
US Recession 2026
Recession probability — the Fed’s growth side
Macro
Inflation / CPI 2026
CPI release markets — the Fed’s price-stability mandate
Macro
US Jobs 2026
Payrolls & unemployment — the Fed’s labor mandate
Macro
Treasury Yields 2026
10-year yield & the curve — the market-rate counterpart
FAQ
Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?
Prediction markets have priced Fed rate cuts at low probability throughout 2026, with the policy rate held steady at most meetings. Polymarket and Kalshi markets for individual FOMC meetings show the real-time implied probability of a cut at each decision date. Search any FOMC meeting at mantiss.store to see the latest cross-venue consensus.
How do prediction market Fed odds compare to CME FedWatch?
CME FedWatch uses fed funds futures to imply cut probabilities. Polymarket and Kalshi use real-money binary contracts. The two often agree but diverge around key data releases (CPI, NFP, GDP). Mantis shows the prediction market consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and PredictIt in one search.
Which venues have the best Fed rate market liquidity?
Kalshi (regulated CFTC exchange) often has the deepest liquidity for macro policy markets. Polymarket has high volume for longer-horizon rate markets. PredictIt covers specific quarterly meetings. Mantis routes you to whichever venue has the best-priced market for your query.
What other macro prediction markets are available?
Beyond the Fed, active macro prediction markets cover: US recession probability, CPI/inflation data, GDP growth, unemployment, oil price targets, and trade tariff outcomes. Type any macro question at mantiss.store to search across all venues.
How does the Fed decision feed into other markets?
The Fed rate path is the master macro variable: cuts tend to lift the S&P 500 and crypto (risk-on, easier liquidity), weaken the US dollar, and steepen the Treasury curve, while supporting gold. That’s why the Fed hub is cross-linked with the stock-market, dollar, Treasury-yields, and Bitcoin hubs — Mantis lets you watch the chain of implications together.
What is the difference between the meeting markets and the year-end markets?
Per-meeting markets (e.g. "cut at the July 2026 FOMC") resolve on a single decision and swing hard on the data immediately before it. Year-end markets (e.g. "at least two cuts in 2026") aggregate the whole path and move more smoothly. Trading them together lets you express views on both timing and magnitude — Mantis surfaces both for any Fed query.