Mantis

Macro Prediction Markets

Federal Reserve Rate Decisions — 2026 Prediction Market Odds

Will the Fed cut rates before year-end? Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless are pricing the probability of rate changes at each 2026 FOMC meeting — often at different levels. Mantis shows the cross-venue consensus in one search.

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2026 FOMC Meeting Calendar

Each meeting date is a potential market resolution point. Prediction markets for rate cuts are active on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless ahead of each decision.

Why prediction markets for Fed decisions?

Real-money consensus

Polymarket and Kalshi aggregate real-money probability estimates from thousands of participants. Unlike polling, prediction market prices move instantly when CPI, NFP, or Fed speech changes the outlook.

Compare Polymarket vs Kalshi

The same rate-cut contract can be priced 2–4 points apart between Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket (crypto-rails). Mantis flags these differences automatically.

Track the full rate path

Beyond individual meetings, markets exist for cumulative cuts in 2026, terminal rate targets, and Fed chair tenure. Search any macro question at mantiss.store.

Other macro prediction markets

FAQ

Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?

Prediction markets have priced Fed rate cuts at low probability throughout 2026, with the policy rate held steady at most meetings. Polymarket and Kalshi markets for individual FOMC meetings show the real-time implied probability of a cut at each decision date. Search any FOMC meeting at mantiss.store to see the latest cross-venue consensus.

How do prediction market Fed odds compare to CME FedWatch?

CME FedWatch uses fed funds futures to imply cut probabilities. Polymarket and Kalshi use real-money binary contracts. The two often agree but diverge around key data releases (CPI, NFP, GDP). Mantis shows the prediction market consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and PredictIt in one search.

Which venues have the best Fed rate market liquidity?

Kalshi (regulated CFTC exchange) often has the deepest liquidity for macro policy markets. Polymarket has high volume for longer-horizon rate markets. PredictIt covers specific quarterly meetings. Mantis routes you to whichever venue has the best-priced market for your query.

What other macro prediction markets are available?

Beyond the Fed, active macro prediction markets cover: US recession probability, CPI/inflation data, GDP growth, unemployment, oil price targets, and trade tariff outcomes. Type any macro question at mantiss.store to search across all venues.