~49–50% · $1.8M liquidity
Will a Republican win the 2028 election?
Party-level winner — Polymarket + Kalshi
Politics Prediction Markets
2028 US Presidential Election — Prediction Market Odds
The 2028 race is already the highest-volume political market on earth. As of June 2026 the parties sit near even, while JD Vance leads the Republican nomination market and Gavin Newsom tops a wide-open Democratic field. The same contract often trades points apart on Polymarket vs Kalshi — Mantis shows the sharpest line in one search.
Party Winner Markets — 2028
Live cross-venue odds for which party wins the White House in 2028. Click any market to compare Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
~46–47% · $1.7M liquidity
Will a Democrat win the 2028 election?
Party-level winner — high cross-venue volume
Candidate Markets — Nominees & Winners
Nomination and general-election markets for the early frontrunners. Probabilities reflect the cross-venue range as of June 2026 and move quickly with primary news.
~32–34%
JD Vance — 2028 Republican nominee?
GOP nomination market
~20–22%
JD Vance — wins the presidency?
Nominee odds × general-election odds
~20–22%
Gavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nominee?
Democratic nomination market
~13–15%
Gavin Newsom — wins the presidency?
Nominee odds × general-election odds
Why trade 2028 markets cross-venue?
The deepest political liquidity anywhere
Presidential markets dwarf every other political category. Even years out, the 2028 party-winner contracts carry seven figures in liquidity — enough that cross-venue price gaps are tradeable, not just cosmetic.
Polymarket vs Kalshi divergence
Polymarket’s global pool and Kalshi’s US-regulated pool price the same candidate differently. A 2–4 point gap on a nominee market is common. Mantis flags the gap and routes you to the better side automatically.
Nomination vs general-election structure
A candidate’s presidency odds are roughly their nomination odds times their general-election odds. Watching both markets together (as Mantis lets you do) often reveals mispricings between the conditional legs.
Related Politics Hubs
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House & Senate control — the last national vote before 2028
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All Politics Markets
Geopolitics, elections, policy — full politics prediction market index
Macro
US Recession 2026
The economy is the backdrop to 2028 — see recession & Fed markets
FAQ
What are the odds for the 2028 US presidential election?
As of June 2026 — very early in the cycle — prediction markets price the two parties near even: a Republican win around 49–50% and a Democratic win around 46–47% on Polymarket, with Kalshi a point or two apart. The 2028 presidential market is the single highest-volume political market in the world, with millions in liquidity even this far out. Mantis shows the live cross-venue spread.
Who is the favourite to be the 2028 nominee on prediction markets?
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads the nomination market at roughly 32–34%. On the Democratic side the field is more open, with California Governor Gavin Newsom near the top around 20–22%. These are early-cycle numbers and shift sharply with primary developments — the same candidate often trades several points apart between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Why do 2028 election odds differ between Polymarket and Kalshi?
Polymarket (global, Polygon-based) and Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, US-legal) have different user bases and liquidity. Election contracts frequently trade 2–4 points apart between the two — for example a party-win contract at 50% on Polymarket and 49% on Kalshi. Mantis surfaces both prices side by side so you always trade the sharper line.
How early do 2028 presidential markets resolve?
Nominee markets resolve at each party’s 2028 national convention (around August 2028); the general-election winner market resolves on the certified Electoral College result after Election Day, November 7, 2028. Because resolution is years out, these markets are driven by news flow and primary positioning — which is exactly why cross-venue price gaps appear and persist.