~49–50% · $1.8M liquidity
Will a Republican win the 2028 election?
Party-level winner — Polymarket + Kalshi
Politics Prediction Markets
2028 US Presidential Election — Prediction Market Odds
The 2028 race is already the highest-volume political market on earth. As of June 2026 the parties sit near even, while JD Vance leads the Republican nomination market and Gavin Newsom tops a wide-open Democratic field. The same contract often trades points apart on Polymarket vs Kalshi — and the Democratic side is now deep enough to justify its own dedicated primary hub. Mantis shows the sharpest line in one search.
Party Winner Markets — 2028
Live cross-venue odds for which party wins the White House in 2028. Click any market to compare Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
~46–47% · $1.7M liquidity
Will a Democrat win the 2028 election?
Party-level winner — high cross-venue volume
Candidate Markets — Nominees & Winners
Nomination and general-election markets for the early frontrunners. Probabilities reflect the cross-venue range as of June 2026 and move quickly with primary news.
~32–34%
JD Vance — 2028 Republican nominee?
GOP nomination market
~20–22%
JD Vance — wins the presidency?
Nominee odds × general-election odds
~20–22%
Gavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nominee?
Democratic nomination market
~13–15%
Gavin Newsom — wins the presidency?
Nominee odds × general-election odds
Why trade 2028 markets cross-venue?
The deepest political liquidity anywhere
Presidential markets dwarf every other political category. Even years out, the 2028 party-winner contracts carry seven figures in liquidity — enough that cross-venue price gaps are tradeable, not just cosmetic.
Polymarket vs Kalshi divergence
Polymarket’s global pool and Kalshi’s US-regulated pool price the same candidate differently. A 2–4 point gap on a nominee market is common. Mantis flags the gap and routes you to the better side automatically.
Nomination vs general-election structure
A candidate’s presidency odds are roughly their nomination odds times their general-election odds. Watching both markets together (as Mantis lets you do) often reveals mispricings between the conditional legs.
2028 Election Cycle Timeline
The milestones that move these markets — from the 2026 midterms read-through to Election Day 2028. Nominee markets reprice hardest during the primaries; the winner market resolves on the certified result.
Nov 2026
US midterms — the biggest pre-primary signal of national mood
2027
Candidates declare; invisible-primary fundraising and polling shape the field
Early 2028
Primaries & caucuses begin (Iowa, New Hampshire) — nominee markets move fastest here
Summer 2028
Party conventions confirm nominees — nominee markets resolve
Nov 7, 2028
Election Day — the general-election winner market resolves on the certified result
Related Politics Hubs
Politics
2026 US Midterms
House & Senate control — the last national vote before 2028
Politics
2028 Democratic Primary
Candidate-level Democratic nominee markets beyond the single Newsom headline.
Politics
All Politics Markets
Geopolitics, elections, policy — full politics prediction market index
FAQ
What are the odds for the 2028 US presidential election?
As of June 2026 — very early in the cycle — prediction markets price the two parties near even: a Republican win around 49–50% and a Democratic win around 46–47% on Polymarket, with Kalshi a point or two apart. The 2028 presidential market is the single highest-volume political market in the world, with millions in liquidity even this far out. Mantis shows the live cross-venue spread.
Who is the favourite to be the 2028 nominee on prediction markets?
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads the nomination market at roughly 32–34%. On the Democratic side the field is more open, with California Governor Gavin Newsom near the top around 20–22%. These are early-cycle numbers and shift sharply with primary developments — the same candidate often trades several points apart between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Why do 2028 election odds differ between Polymarket and Kalshi?
Polymarket (global, Polygon-based) and Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, US-legal) have different user bases and liquidity. Election contracts frequently trade 2–4 points apart between the two — for example a party-win contract at 50% on Polymarket and 49% on Kalshi. Mantis surfaces both prices side by side so you always trade the sharper line.
How early do 2028 presidential markets resolve?
Nominee markets resolve at each party’s 2028 national convention (around August 2028); the general-election winner market resolves on the certified Electoral College result after Election Day, November 7, 2028. Because resolution is years out, these markets are driven by news flow and primary positioning — which is exactly why cross-venue price gaps appear and persist.
How do the 2026 midterms affect the 2028 election odds?
The November 2026 midterms are the biggest data point before the 2028 primaries: they reveal the national mood, reshape each party’s Senate/House leverage, and can make or break potential candidates. A strong midterm for one party typically lifts its 2028 party-win market. Mantis lets you watch the 2026 midterms hub alongside the 2028 markets to track that read-through.
How does a candidate’s nominee market relate to their win market?
A candidate’s probability of winning the presidency is roughly their nomination probability times their general-election probability (conditional on being nominated). So JD Vance at ~33% to be nominee and ~22% to win the presidency implies markets give him about a two-thirds general-election chance if nominated. Watching both legs together (as Mantis shows) often reveals mispricings between the conditional and unconditional contracts.