Polymarket
47% YES
Liquidity $1.7M
24h Vol $230K
politics market
A Democrat wins the 2028 US presidential election
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 47% (Polymarket). Lowest: 46% (Kalshi). Spread: 1 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to politics prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
46% YES
Liquidity $600K
24h Vol $135K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?
Resolution window
Nov 7, 2028, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: 2028 election
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $1.7M.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 1 percentage point across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
The Democratic nominee must win the 2028 US presidential election (270+ electoral votes).
Resolution source
Certified Electoral College result / Associated Press call.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
A Democrat wins the 2028 US presidential election
47% YES
Liquidity $1.7M
Kalshi
A Democrat wins the 2028 US presidential election
46% YES
Liquidity $600K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "A Democrat wins the 2028 US presidential election"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 47% and Kalshi at 46%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.