Mantis

AI Prediction Markets

AI & LLM Prediction Markets 2026

What will GPT-5 score on MMLU? Will Claude 4 outperform on coding? Will OpenAI IPO? Prediction markets are pricing AI milestones in real time across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless — and the same outcome often trades at different probabilities on different venues.

Search AI prediction markets →

Model Releases markets

AGI & Capability markets

Corporate & Regulation markets

AI agents + prediction markets

Agents can route market queries

Connect Claude or any OpenAI agent to Mantis with one line. The route_market tool returns the best prediction market for any AI-related question — model releases, regulatory outcomes, or corporate events.

Cross-venue AI market gaps

AI markets are often priced 3–8 percentage points apart across Polymarket and Kalshi. Mantis's get_arbitrage tool scans for these gaps automatically across all covered venues.

Demand intelligence for AI events

Mantis tracks searches where no prediction market exists yet — demand data useful for identifying what AI markets traders want that venues haven't listed. Available via the get_unmet_demand MCP tool.

See full API documentation →

Related AI & Tech Hubs

FAQ

Are there prediction markets for AI model launches?

Yes. Polymarket and Kalshi have active markets for GPT-5 release timing, Claude model capabilities, AGI milestone achievement, and AI safety benchmarks. These markets often price months in advance and update in real time as AI labs release information. Search any AI model question at mantiss.store.

How can AI agents use Mantis to trade prediction markets?

Mantis exposes a full MCP server at mantiss.store/mcp with 5 tools: route_market, get_quote, get_arbitrage, execute_url, and get_unmet_demand. Claude, OpenAI, Cursor, and Windsurf agents can connect with a free API key. The execute_url tool returns a referral-attributed deep link for the best-priced market.

What venues trade AI prediction markets?

Polymarket is the largest venue for AI tech markets by volume. Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) covers AI regulation and corporate events. Myriad has AI agent token markets. Mantis searches all venues simultaneously to find the best-priced market for any AI question.

Can I use prediction markets to research AI progress?

Prediction market probabilities aggregate real-money forecasts from participants with skin in the game. For AI researchers and investors, these markets provide a live, constantly-updating consensus on milestone timing that can complement other sources. The cross-venue view from Mantis shows where forecasters disagree most.

Which AI prediction markets are most actively traded in 2026?

The highest-volume AI markets cluster around: a GPT-5 release in 2026, AGI/ARC-AGI benchmark milestones, NVIDIA’s $3T market cap, the OpenAI for-profit restructuring and IPO, and AI-regulation outcomes (US law, EU AI Act). Each has a dedicated Mantis hub (see Related AI Hubs below) with the cross-venue contracts and odds.

How do model-capability markets connect to AI infrastructure and policy markets?

They form one chain: capability jumps (LLM/AGI markets) drive demand for compute (NVIDIA, data-center power, semiconductors), attract capital (tech IPOs), and raise the odds of regulation (AI-regulation markets). Watching them together — which Mantis makes easy via the cross-linked AI hubs — captures the full capability → infrastructure → capital → policy loop.