AI
AI Prediction Markets
AI & LLM Prediction Markets 2026
What will GPT-5 score on MMLU? Will Claude 4 outperform on coding? Will OpenAI IPO? Prediction markets are pricing AI milestones in real time across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless — and the same outcome often trades at different probabilities on different venues.
Model Releases markets
AI
Will Claude 4 release in 2026?
AI
Will Gemini 2.0 Ultra outperform GPT-5?
AGI & Capability markets
AI
Will an AI pass the ARC-AGI benchmark by 2026?
AI
OpenAI AGI declaration by 2027?
AI
AI agent token enters crypto top 10
Corporate & Regulation markets
AI
OpenAI IPO in 2026?
AI
AI regulation bill passes US Congress?
AI
Will Nvidia stay above $100 market cap?
AI agents + prediction markets
Agents can route market queries
Connect Claude or any OpenAI agent to Mantis with one line. The route_market tool returns the best prediction market for any AI-related question — model releases, regulatory outcomes, or corporate events.
Cross-venue AI market gaps
AI markets are often priced 3–8 percentage points apart across Polymarket and Kalshi. Mantis's get_arbitrage tool scans for these gaps automatically across all covered venues.
Demand intelligence for AI events
Mantis tracks searches where no prediction market exists yet — demand data useful for identifying what AI markets traders want that venues haven't listed. Available via the get_unmet_demand MCP tool.
FAQ
Are there prediction markets for AI model launches?
Yes. Polymarket and Kalshi have active markets for GPT-5 release timing, Claude model capabilities, AGI milestone achievement, and AI safety benchmarks. These markets often price months in advance and update in real time as AI labs release information. Search any AI model question at mantiss.store.
How can AI agents use Mantis to trade prediction markets?
Mantis exposes a full MCP server at mantiss.store/mcp with 5 tools: route_market, get_quote, get_arbitrage, execute_url, and get_unmet_demand. Claude, OpenAI, Cursor, and Windsurf agents can connect with a free API key. The execute_url tool returns a referral-attributed deep link for the best-priced market.
What venues trade AI prediction markets?
Polymarket is the largest venue for AI tech markets by volume. Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) covers AI regulation and corporate events. Myriad has AI agent token markets. Mantis searches all venues simultaneously to find the best-priced market for any AI question.
Can I use prediction markets to research AI progress?
Prediction market probabilities aggregate real-money forecasts from participants with skin in the game. For AI researchers and investors, these markets provide a live, constantly-updating consensus on milestone timing that can complement other sources. The cross-venue view from Mantis shows where forecasters disagree most.