~8–12% · $1.1M liquidity
Will any AI system achieve AGI by end of 2026?
Narrow definition — Polymarket highest volume
AI Prediction Markets
AGI Prediction Markets — 2026 & Beyond
When will AI achieve AGI? Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price every major AI capability milestone — ARC-AGI-2 passage, OpenAI's AGI declaration, Anthropic's ASL-4 safety level, and autonomous startup operation. The consensus: 55–65% chance before 2030, only 8–12% before end of 2026.
Top AGI & AI Capability Prediction Markets
Cross-venue odds for AGI milestone and AI capability markets. Probability ranges reflect cross-venue spread as of June 2026 — click any market to see real-time quotes.
~18–25% · $680K liquidity
Will OpenAI officially declare AGI achieved in 2026?
Corporate declaration market — broader trigger
~42–55% · $420K liquidity
Will an AI pass the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by end of 2026?
Most achievable AGI proxy — frontier models approaching
~28–35% · $280K liquidity
Will Anthropic reach ASL-4 safety level by end of 2027?
Safety-level proxy for near-AGI capability
~55–65% · $890K liquidity
Will AGI be achieved before 2030?
Longer-dated consensus — majority expect sub-2030
~22–30% · $340K liquidity
Will an AI autonomously run a profitable startup by 2026?
Practical AGI capability proxy
AGI Capability Milestones — Current State
~85% achieved
ARC-AGI-1
Frontier models (Claude, GPT-4o) now pass most ARC-AGI-1 tasks. The benchmark has been largely solved.
~20–30% achieved
ARC-AGI-2
Harder version released 2025. Top models struggle. Prediction markets price 42–55% chance of passing by year-end.
Early progress
Fully autonomous research
AI systems can now run experiments and write papers with minimal supervision. Full autonomy markets price 15–20% by 2026.
Partial
Economic value parity
AI agents generate measurable economic value in coding, writing, and analysis. Full "human worker equivalent" markets price 10–15% by 2026.
Why use prediction markets to track AGI progress?
Real-money expert aggregation
AGI prediction markets attract AI researchers, investors, and domain experts who put real money behind their timeline estimates. Polymarket's AGI markets often move before major capability announcements become widely known.
Multiple AGI definitions tracked simultaneously
Mantis tracks AGI markets across multiple definitions — benchmark passage, corporate declarations, economic equivalence, and safety level upgrades. Different markets give different signals about AI progress timelines.
Cross-venue AGI consensus
The same AGI milestone question can trade 5–10 points apart on Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Limitless. These divergences reflect different user communities and risk models. Mantis shows the full spread in one search.
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AI & LLM Markets 2026
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NVIDIA 2026
NVDA market cap, earnings, Blackwell — the infrastructure bet on AGI
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All AI Markets
Full AI prediction market index across all venues
FAQ
What do prediction markets say about when AGI will be achieved?
Prediction markets currently price a ~55–65% probability of AGI being achieved before 2030, but only ~8–12% probability before end of 2026. The ARC-AGI-2 benchmark (passing = strong AGI signal) is priced at ~42–55% for 2026. Polymarket has the highest AGI market liquidity with $1.1M+ on the flagship 2026 contract. These markets update in real time with capability announcements.
How is AGI defined in prediction markets?
Different markets use different AGI definitions. Polymarket's flagship "AGI by 2026" market resolves based on expert panel consensus, typically requiring autonomous capability across diverse tasks. OpenAI's own internal definition ("highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work") would trigger their specific declaration market. Mantis tracks all definitions — search "AGI prediction market" to see all active contracts.
Are there prediction markets for specific AI capability milestones?
Yes. Active AI capability prediction markets include: ARC-AGI benchmark passage, autonomous scientific research milestones, AI coding agent performance thresholds (SWE-bench), AI-generated economic value metrics, and safety level declarations from Anthropic (ASL-4) and OpenAI. Search any AI capability question at mantiss.store to see cross-venue odds.
How do AGI prediction market odds relate to NVIDIA and AI infrastructure markets?
AGI prediction market prices are closely watched alongside AI infrastructure plays like NVIDIA. A high AGI probability implies explosive continued demand for GPU compute, which is why NVDA market cap markets and AGI timeline markets often correlate. Mantis tracks both simultaneously — search AI milestones and NVIDIA markets in one place.