~58%
Will NVIDIA maintain a $3T+ market cap through end of 2026?
Highest-volume NVDA market on Polymarket
AI Prediction Markets
NVIDIA Prediction Markets — 2026
Will NVIDIA hold its $3 trillion market cap? Beat earnings again? Announce the next-gen Blackwell chip? Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing every NVDA milestone — and the same question often trades at different odds across venues. Mantis shows the full cross-venue spread.
Top NVIDIA Prediction Markets 2026
Cross-venue odds for NVDA stock milestones, earnings, and AI product markets. Probabilities as of June 2026 — click any market to see real-time quotes.
~72%
Will NVIDIA beat Q3 2026 earnings estimates?
NVDA has beaten estimates 8 of last 8 quarters
~44%
Will NVDA stock reach $200 by end of 2026?
Price target from current ~$135
~38%
Will NVIDIA remain the world's most valuable company by end of 2026?
Competition from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon
~65%
Will NVIDIA announce Blackwell Ultra or next-gen chip in 2026?
Product roadmap prediction market
~52%
Will NVIDIA revenue exceed $200B in fiscal year 2027?
Revenue milestone — data center growth
NVIDIA AI Market Context
Data Center Dominance
NVIDIA's H100/H200 GPUs power 90%+ of AI training globally. Data center revenue hit $47B in Q4 FY2025.
Blackwell Architecture
The GB200 NVL72 rack system delivers 30x inference performance vs H100. Demand exceeds supply through 2026.
China Export Controls
US export restrictions limit H20 sales to China — a $15B+ annual revenue headwind prediction markets price in.
Competition Risk
AMD MI300X, Google TPUs, and custom silicon (Meta, Amazon) are accelerating. Markets price meaningful share risk by 2027.
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FAQ
Are there prediction markets for NVIDIA stock price and earnings?
Yes. Polymarket and Kalshi both have active NVIDIA prediction markets — covering market cap milestones ($3T threshold), earnings beat/miss probabilities, specific stock price targets, and product launch timing. NVDA has become one of the most-traded single-stock prediction market subjects because of its direct link to AI infrastructure spending.
What probability do markets assign to NVIDIA staying above $3 trillion market cap?
As of June 2026, prediction markets price NVIDIA maintaining a $3T+ market cap through year-end at ~58% on Polymarket. The stock entered 2026 near $140, rose to ~$160 on AI demand data, then pulled back to ~$130 on China export concerns. Prices differ across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless — Mantis shows the full cross-venue spread.
How do NVIDIA prediction markets connect to AI market prediction markets?
NVIDIA is the infrastructure layer for AI — its GPU sales are a leading indicator of AI investment. Prediction markets for NVDA earnings, market cap, and product launches often correlate with broader AI milestone markets (GPT-5 release timing, AGI probability, data center spending). Search both in one place at mantiss.store.
Which venues have NVIDIA prediction markets?
Polymarket has the deepest NVIDIA market liquidity and covers the broadest set of NVDA questions. Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) offers earnings beat/miss markets accessible to US traders. Limitless occasionally carries unique NVIDIA ecosystem questions. Mantis aggregates all venues and routes you to the best-priced market for any NVDA question.