~72% · $680K/day
Will OpenAI complete its for-profit restructuring by end of 2026?
Prerequisite for any IPO — California AG oversight
AI Prediction Markets
OpenAI IPO Prediction Markets
Will OpenAI go public in 2026? Prediction markets on Polymarket price a 2026 IPO filing at ~28% and a public offering by 2027 at ~52%. The for-profit restructuring — at 72% probability of completing in 2026 — is the critical unlock. Mantis tracks all OpenAI prediction markets across venues in one search.
Top OpenAI Prediction Markets
~28% · $540K/day
Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026?
Filing ≠ public trading — often 6–12 months apart
~52% · $820K/day
Will OpenAI have a public stock offering by end of 2027?
Wider window — highest-volume OpenAI market
~58% · $290K/day
Will OpenAI achieve a $300B+ valuation in its next funding round?
Private market valuation milestone market
~78% · $240K/day
Will OpenAI release a reasoning model surpassing o3 in 2026?
Product pipeline milestone — o4/o5 release market
OpenAI IPO Timeline
Jan 2025
Stargate announcement
$500B AI infrastructure investment with SoftBank, Oracle, MGX
Mar 2025
For-profit restructuring filing
OpenAI files plan to convert from nonprofit. California AG review ongoing.
Oct 2025
$6.6B funding round
Round at ~$157B valuation. Thrive Capital, SoftBank lead. IPO still TBD.
2026
IPO or SPO possible
Restructuring must complete before any public offering. Markets price 28% in 2026.
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FAQ
What do prediction markets say about an OpenAI IPO in 2026?
Prediction markets on Polymarket price an OpenAI IPO filing in 2026 at ~28% probability, with a public offering by end of 2027 at ~52%. The key prerequisite is completing the for-profit restructuring, which markets price at ~72% complete by year-end. OpenAI's last private round valued the company at ~$157B, suggesting an IPO valuation of $200–400B.
Why hasn't OpenAI gone public yet?
OpenAI is structured as a capped-profit LLC under a nonprofit parent, which complicates traditional IPO processes. The ongoing restructuring to a fully for-profit benefit corporation requires California Attorney General approval. Prediction markets price this restructuring completing in 2026 at ~72%, which is the most likely path to an eventual IPO.
What valuation would OpenAI have at IPO?
OpenAI's last funding round (October 2025) valued the company at ~$157B. Comparable AI infrastructure companies and revenue growth suggest an IPO valuation of $200–500B, depending on timing and market conditions. Prediction markets track specific valuation milestones ($200B, $300B, $500B) as separate binary contracts on Polymarket and Limitless.
Are there prediction markets for other AI company IPOs in 2026?
Yes. Beyond OpenAI, active AI company IPO markets include: Anthropic funding round valuation milestones, xAI (Elon Musk's Grok) IPO timing, Perplexity AI valuation, and Stability AI restructuring. Mantis aggregates all AI company prediction markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless — search any company name at mantiss.store.
How does the OpenAI IPO market relate to the broader tech IPO window?
OpenAI is the marquee name in a wider 2026 tech-IPO class that also includes Stripe, Databricks, and possibly Starlink/SpaceX. They share a common gate: the IPO window, which opens when equity markets (especially the Nasdaq) are strong and risk appetite is high. So the OpenAI market correlates with the Tech IPOs hub and the stock-market hub — a risk-off stretch can freeze the whole cohort at once.
Why is the for-profit restructuring market a prerequisite for an IPO?
OpenAI’s capped-profit structure under a nonprofit parent is not a conventional IPO vehicle, so completing a for-profit (e.g. PBC) restructuring is widely seen as a precondition for any public offering. That’s why prediction markets price the restructuring (~72%) much higher than a near-term IPO — the corporate reorganization has to land first. Watching both contracts together tracks the sequencing.