~72% · $680K/day
Will OpenAI complete its for-profit restructuring by end of 2026?
Prerequisite for any IPO — California AG oversight
AI Prediction Markets
OpenAI IPO Prediction Markets
Will OpenAI go public in 2026? Prediction markets on Polymarket price a 2026 IPO filing at ~28% and a public offering by 2027 at ~52%. The for-profit restructuring — at 72% probability of completing in 2026 — is the critical unlock. Mantis tracks all OpenAI prediction markets across venues in one search.
Top OpenAI Prediction Markets
~28% · $540K/day
Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026?
Filing ≠ public trading — often 6–12 months apart
~52% · $820K/day
Will OpenAI have a public stock offering by end of 2027?
Wider window — highest-volume OpenAI market
~58% · $290K/day
Will OpenAI achieve a $300B+ valuation in its next funding round?
Private market valuation milestone market
~78% · $240K/day
Will OpenAI release a reasoning model surpassing o3 in 2026?
Product pipeline milestone — o4/o5 release market
OpenAI IPO Timeline
Jan 2025
Stargate announcement
$500B AI infrastructure investment with SoftBank, Oracle, MGX
Mar 2025
For-profit restructuring filing
OpenAI files plan to convert from nonprofit. California AG review ongoing.
Oct 2025
$6.6B funding round
Round at ~$157B valuation. Thrive Capital, SoftBank lead. IPO still TBD.
2026
IPO or SPO possible
Restructuring must complete before any public offering. Markets price 28% in 2026.
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FAQ
What do prediction markets say about an OpenAI IPO in 2026?
Prediction markets on Polymarket price an OpenAI IPO filing in 2026 at ~28% probability, with a public offering by end of 2027 at ~52%. The key prerequisite is completing the for-profit restructuring, which markets price at ~72% complete by year-end. OpenAI's last private round valued the company at ~$157B, suggesting an IPO valuation of $200–400B.
Why hasn't OpenAI gone public yet?
OpenAI is structured as a capped-profit LLC under a nonprofit parent, which complicates traditional IPO processes. The ongoing restructuring to a fully for-profit benefit corporation requires California Attorney General approval. Prediction markets price this restructuring completing in 2026 at ~72%, which is the most likely path to an eventual IPO.
What valuation would OpenAI have at IPO?
OpenAI's last funding round (October 2025) valued the company at ~$157B. Comparable AI infrastructure companies and revenue growth suggest an IPO valuation of $200–500B, depending on timing and market conditions. Prediction markets track specific valuation milestones ($200B, $300B, $500B) as separate binary contracts on Polymarket and Limitless.
Are there prediction markets for other AI company IPOs in 2026?
Yes. Beyond OpenAI, active AI company IPO markets include: Anthropic funding round valuation milestones, xAI (Elon Musk's Grok) IPO timing, Perplexity AI valuation, and Stability AI restructuring. Mantis aggregates all AI company prediction markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless — search any company name at mantiss.store.