Polymarket
22% YES
Liquidity $760K
24h Vol $98K
politics market
Gavin Newsom is the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 22% (Polymarket). Lowest: 20% (Kalshi). Spread: 2 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to politics prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
20% YES
Liquidity $240K
24h Vol $48K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee?
Resolution window
Aug 31, 2028, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: 2028 election, Gavin Newsom
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $760K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 2 percentage points across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
Gavin Newsom must become the Democratic Party nominee for the 2028 presidential election.
Resolution source
Democratic National Convention result.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
Gavin Newsom is the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
22% YES
Liquidity $760K
Kalshi
Gavin Newsom is the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
20% YES
Liquidity $240K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "Gavin Newsom is the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 22% and Kalshi at 20%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.