Polymarket
Republican Senate Control
58% YES
GOP favoured to keep Senate majority
Political Prediction Markets
2026 US Midterm Election — Prediction Market Odds
The 2026 midterms are 5 months away. Republicans are 58% to hold the Senate and Democrats are 81% to take back the House — but Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt don't always agree. Mantis shows every venue's line at once.
Key midterm markets — current odds
Click any market to see the full cross-venue comparison across Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt.
Polymarket
Democratic House Control
81% YES
Democrats strong favourite in House
Polymarket
Republican House Control
19% YES
Long shot for GOP to hold House
Polymarket
Democratic Senate Control
42% YES
Uphill for Dems to flip Senate
Why cross-venue comparison matters for election markets
Polymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt
The same Senate control outcome can be 2–5 points apart across venues. PredictIt often diverges from Polymarket on close races. Mantis shows all three lines at once.
Real-time price updates
Prediction market odds update instantly as news breaks — polls, endorsements, candidate events. These pages revalidate every 15 minutes from live data.
Track all 34 Senate races
Beyond the overall control markets, individual Senate races (Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania) have active markets. Search any race at mantiss.store.
Related Politics Hubs
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US Senate 2026
Senate control & key races — the GOP majority question
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US House 2026
House control — the chamber Democrats are favored to flip
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2028 US President
The next presidential cycle — midterms are the leading signal
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Government Shutdown 2026
Shutdown risk — driven by the post-midterm balance of power
FAQ
What do prediction markets say about the 2026 US midterms?
As of June 2026, Polymarket prices Republicans at 58% to control the Senate and Democrats at 81% to control the House after the midterms. These are the most liquid US political prediction markets right now, trading hundreds of thousands of dollars daily. Kalshi and PredictIt often show slightly different probabilities on the same outcome.
How do 2026 midterm odds differ between Polymarket and Kalshi?
Polymarket and Kalshi often price the same Senate or House control outcome 2–5 percentage points apart. This reflects different user bases and market-maker models. Mantis queries both simultaneously so you always see the cross-venue picture before deciding where to trade.
When do the 2026 US midterm elections happen?
The 2026 US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats are up for election. Prediction markets for these outcomes currently resolve in January 2027 once the new Congress is seated.
Why use prediction markets to track the midterms?
Prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from thousands of participants who have skin in the game. Research suggests they are often more accurate than polling averages because they incorporate all publicly available information and update in real time. Mantis makes it easy to compare the cross-venue consensus rather than relying on a single platform.
How do the 2026 midterms read through to the 2028 presidential race?
The midterms are the single biggest data point before the 2028 primaries: they reveal the national mood, reset each party’s legislative leverage, and elevate or sink potential 2028 candidates. A strong midterm typically lifts that party’s 2028 party-win market. Mantis cross-links the 2028 US President hub so you can trade the read-through as midterm results land.
Can a split Congress affect government-shutdown and fiscal markets?
Yes — the midterm outcome directly shapes shutdown and debt-ceiling risk. A divided government raises brinkmanship odds around appropriations deadlines, lifting the government-shutdown market. Watching the midterms hub alongside the shutdown and US-debt hubs (all cross-linked on Mantis) captures that fiscal-risk chain.