Mantis

politics market

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election

Mantis shows this market across 6 venues side by side. Highest: 20% (Polymarket). Lowest: 3% (Polymarket). Spread: 17 percentage points.

Start from all categories or jump back to politics prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.

Current venue comparison

Market snapshot

Question wording

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Resolution window

Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC

Confidence: medium

Assets and settlement

Assets: General market basket

Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC

Best liquidity right now

Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $516K.

Resolution details

Cross-venue spread: 17 percentage points across 6 venues. This is a meaningful gap — the best price depends on which venue you use.

Resolution trigger

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

Resolution source

for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC

Restrictions

Source venue may restrict some jurisdictions

Related listings

Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.

Polymarket

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election

10% YES

Liquidity $342K

Polymarket

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election

3% YES

Liquidity $516K

Polymarket

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election

3% YES

Liquidity $430K

Polymarket

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election

13% YES

Liquidity $440K

More Politics markets →

FAQ

What is the current probability for "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election"?

As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 20% and Polymarket at 3%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.

How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?

Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.

Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?

Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.