~42–45% · $200K liquidity
Will the US add over 2M jobs in 2026?
Cumulative nonfarm payroll growth
Macro Prediction Markets
US Jobs & Unemployment 2026 — Prediction Market Odds
Does the labor market stay tight, or crack? Prediction markets price every 2026 jobs outcome — payroll growth, the unemployment rate, and recession-warning contractions — as binary contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, repricing on each monthly report. Mantis shows the sharpest cross-venue line in one search.
Top US Jobs Markets 2026
Live cross-venue odds for payrolls and unemployment. Probability ranges reflect the cross-venue spread as of June 2026 — click any market for real-time quotes.
~37–40% · $220K liquidity
Will US unemployment fall below 4% in 2026?
A tight-labor-market signal
~35–38% · $180K liquidity
Will a 2026 month show negative job growth?
Payrolls contracting — a recession warning
~32–35% · $240K liquidity
Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?
Labor-market deterioration threshold
What drives the 2026 jobs odds
The monthly jobs report
The first-Friday BLS report is the single biggest mover — payrolls, the unemployment rate, and revisions can swing every market on this page within minutes of release.
Fed feedback loop
Labor data drives rate expectations, and rate policy feeds back into hiring. The jobs and Fed markets move together — divergences between them are tradeable signals.
Recession early warning
A month of negative payrolls is a classic recession tell. This market is a leading companion to the headline 2026 recession contract — watch them side by side.
Related Macro Hubs
Macro
Fed Rate Decisions 2026
FOMC odds — the jobs report’s biggest downstream market
Macro
US Recession 2026
Recession probability — closely tied to payroll contractions
Macro
Inflation / CPI 2026
The other half of the Fed mandate — CPI release markets
FAQ
What do prediction markets say about US jobs in 2026?
As of June 2026, prediction markets give the US adding more than 2 million jobs over the year roughly 42–45% on Polymarket, unemployment falling below 4% around 37–40%, at least one month of negative payroll growth near 35–38%, and unemployment topping 5% about 32–35%. These move on each monthly jobs report — Mantis shows the live cross-venue spread.
How do jobs markets connect to Fed rate decisions?
The labor market is half of the Fed’s dual mandate, so the jobs report is one of the biggest inputs to rate-cut odds. A weak print (rising unemployment, negative payrolls) pushes cut expectations up; a hot print pushes them down. Watching the jobs markets alongside the Fed hub often reveals when the two are inconsistent.
Where can I trade US jobs prediction markets?
Polymarket and Kalshi both list unemployment-rate and payroll outcomes as binary contracts. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and US-legal for these economic-data markets; Polymarket offers global access. Mantis queries both venues in real time and routes you to the best price with referral codes intact.
How do these jobs markets resolve?
Each resolves on official Bureau of Labor Statistics data — the U-3 unemployment rate or nonfarm payroll change for the relevant 2026 reference month(s), per each market’s rules. Because revisions and the exact reference window can differ between venues, small cross-venue gaps appear — which Mantis surfaces automatically.