Polymarket · 34%
Macro Prediction Markets
US Inflation & CPI Prediction Markets — 2026
Will inflation return to the Fed's 2% target? CPI has fallen from 2.9% in January to 2.4% by May 2026 — and prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the rest of the year in real time. Compare cross-venue odds in one search.
Top Inflation Prediction Markets 2026
Live cross-venue odds for US inflation and macro data markets. Prices shown are indicative as of June 2026 — click any market to see real-time quotes across all venues.
Kalshi · 58%
Will CPI be below 3% in July 2026?
Polymarket · 41%
Will core PCE fall below 2.5% in 2026?
Polymarket · 28%
Will there be a US recession in 2026?
Kalshi · 22%
Will the unemployment rate exceed 5% in 2026?
Polymarket · 31%
Will US GDP growth be negative in any 2026 quarter?
2026 CPI Release Calendar
Each monthly CPI release is a prediction market resolution event. Kalshi and Polymarket offer binary contracts on whether CPI will print above or below specific levels.
✓ Released: 2.9%
January CPI
Released Feb 12
✓ Released: 2.8%
February CPI
Released Mar 12
✓ Released: 2.4%
March CPI
Released Apr 10
✓ Released: 2.3%
April CPI
Released May 13
✓ Released: 2.4%
May CPI
Released Jun 11
Upcoming
June CPI
Released Jul 15
Upcoming
July CPI
Released Aug 13
Upcoming
August CPI
Released Sep 11
Upcoming
September CPI
Released Oct 14
Upcoming
October CPI
Released Nov 13
Upcoming
November CPI
Released Dec 10
Upcoming
December CPI
Released Jan 14 '27
Why use prediction markets for inflation data?
Real-money consensus ahead of the number
Kalshi CPI contracts price the market's best guess at the print before it is released. These contracts often diverge from economist surveys — the divergence is a tradable signal in itself.
Kalshi vs Polymarket spreads
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) typically leads institutional flow for US macro markets. Polymarket prices the same question on crypto rails and occasionally diverges by 2–5 points. Mantis shows both sides of the spread instantly.
Link to Fed rate markets
CPI and Fed rate markets are deeply connected — a hotter-than-expected print moves Fed cut probabilities immediately. Track both in one place at Mantis.
Related Macro Hubs
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Macro conditions drive BTC — see cross-venue crypto prediction markets
FAQ
Are there prediction markets for US CPI inflation data?
Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket both have active CPI markets — binary contracts on whether monthly CPI will print above or below specific levels. Kalshi is particularly deep for US macro data releases because it is CFTC-regulated and attracts institutional flow. Mantis queries both venues and shows the sharpest line for any CPI question.
What probability do prediction markets assign to inflation returning to 2%?
As of June 2026, CPI has trended from 2.9% in January to around 2.3–2.4% by May. Prediction markets on Polymarket currently price the probability of hitting the Fed's 2% target before year-end at roughly 30–40%. These prices update instantly after each monthly CPI release.
How do I trade CPI prediction markets?
Kalshi offers CFTC-regulated CPI contracts for US traders. Polymarket offers similar markets on crypto rails for non-US traders. Mantis searches all venues simultaneously and shows which platform has the best-priced market for your specific CPI question — no account required to compare.
What other macro prediction markets are available beyond inflation?
Active macro prediction markets include: Fed rate decisions at each FOMC meeting (see /markets/macro/fed-2026), US recession probability, GDP growth by quarter, unemployment rate thresholds, and commodity price (oil, gold) targets. Search any macro question at mantiss.store to see all active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and PredictIt.
How do tariffs feed into the 2026 CPI markets?
Tariffs are a direct cost pass-through to consumer prices — new or higher import tariffs tend to lift goods inflation within a few months. So when the tariffs market prices escalation, the CPI markets typically price higher inflation and the "back to 2%" market falls. Mantis cross-links the tariffs hub so you can trade that pass-through ahead of the print.
Why does each CPI release move the Fed markets so much?
Inflation is half of the Fed’s dual mandate, so the monthly CPI print is one of the highest-impact scheduled events for rate-cut odds. A downside surprise can lift cut probabilities several points within the hour; an upside surprise does the reverse. That tight coupling is why the inflation and Fed hubs move together — watching both (as Mantis shows) flags when they disagree.