~42% · $520K/day
Will Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold ETFs in total AUM by end of 2026?
Structural shift market — gold ETF AUM ~$250B
Crypto Prediction Markets
Bitcoin ETF Prediction Markets — 2026
Will BTC ETFs surpass gold ETFs? BlackRock IBIT hit $100B? BTC ETF options get full approval? Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price every institutional Bitcoin milestone — Mantis shows cross-venue odds in one search.
Top Bitcoin ETF Prediction Markets 2026
~58% · $380K/day
Will BlackRock IBIT exceed $100B AUM in 2026?
IBIT is largest BTC ETF at ~$60B
~72% · $290K/day
Will BTC spot ETF options gain full regulatory approval in 2026?
Leveraged exposure market — currently pending
~44% · $240K/day
Will US BTC ETFs see $50B+ net inflows in 2026?
Flow milestone market — 2024 saw ~$35B in H2
~55% · $180K/day
Will a Bitcoin ETF launch in a G7 country outside the US by 2026?
International expansion market
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FAQ
Will Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold ETFs in assets under management?
Prediction markets price BTC ETFs overtaking gold ETFs in total AUM at ~42% by end of 2026. US Bitcoin spot ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, BITB) launched in January 2024 and collectively grew to over $100B in AUM by mid-2025. Gold ETFs still hold ~$250B globally. A major BTC price rally and continued institutional adoption would close the gap. Mantis tracks all BTC ETF milestone markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.
What prediction markets exist for BlackRock IBIT specifically?
BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF is the largest and most liquid BTC ETF with ~$60B in AUM as of mid-2026. Polymarket has active markets for IBIT hitting $100B AUM (~58% probability), monthly inflow milestones, and options volume thresholds. These IBIT-specific markets are among the most actively traded crypto ETF prediction markets on any platform.
How do Bitcoin ETF prediction markets connect to BTC price targets?
BTC ETF inflow markets and BTC price target markets (BTC $150K/$200K) are highly correlated — institutional ETF buying drives price appreciation, which in turn increases ETF AUM. Mantis tracks both simultaneously so you can see how institutional flow and price prediction markets are moving together across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.
Which prediction market venues cover Bitcoin ETF markets best?
Polymarket has the deepest BTC ETF market liquidity, with AUM milestone contracts and inflow markets. Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) covers ETF regulatory milestones for US traders. Limitless carries some international BTC ETF expansion markets. Mantis queries all venues in real time so you always see the best-priced ETF market.