~52% · $580K/day
Will the US deport more than 1 million people in fiscal year 2026?
Highest-volume immigration market — Trump 1M target
Politics Prediction Markets
US Immigration Policy Prediction Markets — 2026
1M deportations at 52%, DACA ruling at 38%, border below 100K/month at 62%, birthright citizenship EO at 28%. US immigration prediction markets on Polymarket have $580K+ in daily volume on the deportation scale question alone. Compare cross-venue immigration odds in one search.
Top US Immigration Prediction Markets 2026
~38% · $320K/day
Will the US Supreme Court uphold the end of DACA in 2026?
DACA litigation ongoing — 600K recipients at stake
~62% · $280K/day
Will US border encounters fall below 100K/month in 2026?
Pre-2021 baseline — Trump enforcement impact
~28% · $240K/day
Will the US end birthright citizenship via executive action in 2026?
Constitutional question — likely SCOTUS review
~15% · $180K/day
Will a major immigration reform bill pass Congress in 2026?
Comprehensive reform unlikely — enforcement focus instead
Related Politics Hubs
Politics
US House 2026
House control at 52% D — immigration enforcement constraint
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Recession 2026
Labour market impacts of deportation scale — macro connection
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Full US politics prediction market index
FAQ
What US immigration prediction markets are active in 2026?
Active US immigration prediction markets include: 1M+ deportations in FY2026 (~52%, highest-volume at $580K/day on Polymarket), DACA Supreme Court ruling (~38%), border encounters below 100K/month (~62%), birthright citizenship executive action (~28%), and a comprehensive immigration reform bill (~15%). The deportation scale market is the most actively traded immigration market on Polymarket.
Will the US deport more than 1 million people in 2026?
Prediction markets price the US deporting 1M+ people in FY2026 at ~52%, reflecting Trump's stated 1 million deportation target. FY2023 saw ~250K deportations; FY2024 saw ~300K. Reaching 1M would require a 3-4x increase in enforcement operations. The probability reflects genuine uncertainty: ICE capacity constraints, court challenges, and logistical limitations make 1M ambitious but not impossible given expanded resources.
What are the DACA prediction markets?
DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) prediction markets track the Supreme Court's ongoing review of the program. With ~600K current recipients, DACA's future is one of the highest-stakes immigration legal questions. The Supreme Court upholding DACA's end is priced at ~38% — reflecting the legal uncertainty of the 2012 executive action under current court composition.
How do immigration prediction markets connect to other political markets?
US immigration markets are correlated with Congress and Senate control markets — a Republican sweep makes mass deportation more feasible and comprehensive reform less likely. Prediction markets for Democratic House control (~52%), which would constrain executive immigration enforcement, and the immigration outcome markets often move together. Mantis tracks both simultaneously.