~74% · $320K/day
Will Islam Makhachev successfully defend the Lightweight title in 2026?
Dominant champion — P4P #1 on most lists
Sports Prediction Markets
UFC & MMA Prediction Markets — 2026
Islam Makhachev title defence at 74%, McGregor return at 38%, Pereira retention at 62%. UFC prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi update in real-time during weigh-ins, fight week, and live through each round. Mantis shows cross-venue MMA odds side by side.
Top UFC & MMA Prediction Markets 2026
~48% · $280K/day
Will Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic 2 happen in 2026?
Heavyweight super-fight market
~62% · $240K/day
Will Alex Pereira retain the Light Heavyweight title through 2026?
Poatan — dominant but fights often
~38% · $410K/day
Will Conor McGregor return to the UFC octagon in 2026?
Narrative market — USADA clearance needed
~65% · $140K/day
Will there be a UFC 300-level mega-event in 2026?
Event-scale market for card quality
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FAQ
Where can I find UFC prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Polymarket and Kalshi both carry active UFC prediction markets — championship fight outcomes, title defence milestones, and fighter return markets. Polymarket's Conor McGregor return market has $410K in daily volume, making it one of the highest-volume MMA contracts. Mantis aggregates all venues so you see cross-venue UFC odds in one search.
How accurate have UFC prediction markets been historically?
UFC prediction markets have generally tracked outcomes well for champion defences (heavy favourites price correctly) but diverge significantly on upset-prone matchups. Markets also move in real time during fights as live betting data flows in, creating short windows where cross-venue spreads of 5-15 points appear. Mantis detects these gaps automatically.
Will Conor McGregor return to the UFC in 2026?
Prediction markets price a Conor McGregor UFC return at ~38% in 2026. McGregor has been inactive since his broken leg at UFC 264 (July 2021) and has required USADA biological passport clearance. Multiple return fights have been announced and cancelled. The 38% reflects meaningful probability but market scepticism given the long history of cancelled bouts.
What other combat sports prediction markets are available?
Beyond UFC/MMA, active combat sports prediction markets cover: boxing heavyweight championship fights (Fury, Usyk, Joshua rematches), boxing PPV buy rate milestones, ONE Championship title defences, and crossover events (MMA vs boxing). Mantis tracks all combat sports prediction markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.