Polymarket
3% YES
Liquidity $120K
24h Vol $18K
ai market
A quantum computer breaks RSA-2048 by end of 2026
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 3% (Polymarket). Lowest: 2% (Kalshi). Spread: 1 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to ai prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
2% YES
Liquidity $50K
24h Vol $9K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will a quantum computer break RSA-2048 by end of 2026?
Resolution window
Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: quantum, cryptography
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $120K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 1 percentage point across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
A quantum computer must publicly factor an RSA-2048 key before the cutoff.
Resolution source
Peer-reviewed demonstration / verified reporting.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
A quantum computer breaks RSA-2048 by end of 2026
3% YES
Liquidity $120K
Kalshi
A quantum computer breaks RSA-2048 by end of 2026
2% YES
Liquidity $50K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "A quantum computer breaks RSA-2048 by end of 2026"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 3% and Kalshi at 2%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.