Polymarket
30% YES
Liquidity $280K
24h Vol $46K
politics market
US government shutdown before the 2026 midterms
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 30% (Polymarket). Lowest: 27% (Kalshi). Spread: 3 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to politics prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
27% YES
Liquidity $130K
24h Vol $30K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will a US government shutdown occur before the 2026 midterms?
Resolution window
Nov 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: US government
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $280K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 3 percentage points across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
A federal government shutdown must begin before Election Day (Nov 3, 2026).
Resolution source
Official federal government / OMB confirmation.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
US government shutdown before the 2026 midterms
30% YES
Liquidity $280K
Kalshi
US government shutdown before the 2026 midterms
27% YES
Liquidity $130K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "US government shutdown before the 2026 midterms"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 30% and Kalshi at 27%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.