Polymarket
48% YES
Liquidity $280K
24h Vol $42K
ai market
An AI passes the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by end of 2026
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 48% (Polymarket). Lowest: 45% (Kalshi). Spread: 3 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to ai prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
45% YES
Liquidity $90K
24h Vol $15K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will an AI pass the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by end of 2026?
Resolution window
Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: AGI
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $280K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 3 percentage points across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
An AI system must exceed the human-level threshold on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark before the cutoff.
Resolution source
ARC Prize official leaderboard.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
An AI passes the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by end of 2026
48% YES
Liquidity $280K
Kalshi
An AI passes the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by end of 2026
45% YES
Liquidity $90K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "An AI passes the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by end of 2026"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 48% and Kalshi at 45%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.