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politics market

Republicans retain House majority after the 2026 midterms

Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 48% (Polymarket). Lowest: 46% (Kalshi). Spread: 2 percentage points.

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Current venue comparison

Market snapshot

Question wording

Will Republicans retain the House majority after the 2026 midterms?

Resolution window

Nov 3, 2026, 23:59 UTC

Confidence: medium

Assets and settlement

Assets: US House

Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC

Best liquidity right now

Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $720K.

Resolution details

Cross-venue spread: 2 percentage points across 2 venues.

Resolution trigger

The Republican Party must hold 218 or more US House seats after the 2026 midterm elections.

Resolution source

Certified election results / Associated Press race calls.

Restrictions

US persons may be blocked by source platform

Related listings

Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.

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FAQ

What is the current probability for "Republicans retain House majority after the 2026 midterms"?

As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 48% and Kalshi at 46%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.

How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?

Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.

Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?

Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.