Polymarket
34% YES
Liquidity $220K
24h Vol $34K
ai market
Tesla FSD reaches Level 4 autonomy by end of 2026
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 34% (Polymarket). Lowest: 31% (Kalshi). Spread: 3 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to ai prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
31% YES
Liquidity $90K
24h Vol $14K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will Tesla FSD reach Level 4 autonomy by end of 2026?
Resolution window
Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: TSLA
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $220K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 3 percentage points across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
Tesla FSD must achieve a recognized SAE Level 4 autonomy designation before the cutoff.
Resolution source
Regulatory designation / Tesla official announcement.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
Tesla FSD reaches Level 4 autonomy by end of 2026
34% YES
Liquidity $220K
Kalshi
Tesla FSD reaches Level 4 autonomy by end of 2026
31% YES
Liquidity $90K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "Tesla FSD reaches Level 4 autonomy by end of 2026"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 34% and Kalshi at 31%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.