Polymarket
18% YES
Liquidity $200K
24h Vol $30K
ai market
Tesla sells Optimus robots externally in 2026
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 18% (Polymarket). Lowest: 16% (Kalshi). Spread: 2 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to ai prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
16% YES
Liquidity $80K
24h Vol $15K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to external customers in 2026?
Resolution window
Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: TSLA, Optimus, robotics
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $200K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 2 percentage points across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
Tesla must sell or deliver Optimus units to customers outside Tesla before the cutoff.
Resolution source
Tesla official announcement / verified reporting.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
Tesla sells Optimus robots externally in 2026
18% YES
Liquidity $200K
Kalshi
Tesla sells Optimus robots externally in 2026
16% YES
Liquidity $80K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "Tesla sells Optimus robots externally in 2026"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 18% and Kalshi at 16%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.