Polymarket
35% YES
Liquidity $240K
24h Vol $38K
macro market
10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.5% in 2026
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 35% (Polymarket). Lowest: 32% (Kalshi). Spread: 3 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to macro prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
32% YES
Liquidity $100K
24h Vol $22K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will the 10-year Treasury yield fall below 3.5 percent in 2026?
Resolution window
Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: Treasury, 10Y
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $240K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 3 percentage points across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
The US 10-year Treasury yield must close below 3.50% on any 2026 trading day.
Resolution source
US Treasury / Federal Reserve H.15 yield data.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.5% in 2026
35% YES
Liquidity $240K
Kalshi
10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.5% in 2026
32% YES
Liquidity $100K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.5% in 2026"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 35% and Kalshi at 32%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.