Mantis

macro market

S&P 500 closes 2026 above 6,500

Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 62% (Polymarket). Lowest: 60% (Kalshi). Spread: 2 percentage points.

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Current venue comparison

Market snapshot

Question wording

Will the S&P 500 close 2026 above 6,500?

Resolution window

Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC

Confidence: high

Assets and settlement

Assets: S&P 500

Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC

Best liquidity right now

Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $420K.

Resolution details

Cross-venue spread: 2 percentage points across 2 venues.

Resolution trigger

The S&P 500 index must close the final 2026 trading day at or above 6,500.

Resolution source

S&P Dow Jones Indices official close.

Restrictions

US persons may be blocked by source platform

Related listings

Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.

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FAQ

What is the current probability for "S&P 500 closes 2026 above 6,500"?

As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 62% and Kalshi at 60%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.

How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?

Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.

Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?

Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.