Polymarket
65% YES
Liquidity $160K
24h Vol $24K
ai market
US tightens chip export controls on China in 2026
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 65% (Polymarket). Lowest: 62% (Kalshi). Spread: 3 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to ai prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
62% YES
Liquidity $65K
24h Vol $13K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will the US tighten chip export controls on China in 2026?
Resolution window
Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: high
Assets and settlement
Assets: semiconductors, export controls
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $160K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 3 percentage points across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
The US must announce new or tightened semiconductor export controls targeting China before the cutoff.
Resolution source
US Commerce Department / BIS announcements.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
US tightens chip export controls on China in 2026
65% YES
Liquidity $160K
Kalshi
US tightens chip export controls on China in 2026
62% YES
Liquidity $65K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "US tightens chip export controls on China in 2026"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 65% and Kalshi at 62%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.