Polymarket
31% YES
Liquidity $420K
24h Vol $62K
politics market
Military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in 2026
Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 31% (Polymarket). Lowest: 28% (Kalshi). Spread: 3 percentage points.
Start from all categories or jump back to politics prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.
Current venue comparison
Kalshi
28% YES
Liquidity $180K
24h Vol $34K
Market snapshot
Question wording
Will there be a military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in 2026?
Resolution window
Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC
Confidence: medium
Assets and settlement
Assets: Taiwan
Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC
Best liquidity right now
Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $420K.
Resolution details
Cross-venue spread: 3 percentage points across 2 venues.
Resolution trigger
A direct military confrontation involving live fire in the Taiwan Strait must occur before the cutoff.
Resolution source
Verified international reporting and official confirmations.
Restrictions
US persons may be blocked by source platform
Related listings
Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.
Polymarket
Military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in 2026
31% YES
Liquidity $420K
Kalshi
Military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in 2026
28% YES
Liquidity $180K
FAQ
What is the current probability for "Military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in 2026"?
As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 31% and Kalshi at 28%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.
How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?
Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.
Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?
Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.