Mantis

politics market

Ukraine–Russia ceasefire agreement by end of 2026

Mantis shows this market across 2 venues side by side. Highest: 68% (Polymarket). Lowest: 64% (Kalshi). Spread: 4 percentage points.

Start from all categories or jump back to politics prediction markets if you want adjacent contracts with similar timing or resolution rules.

Current venue comparison

Market snapshot

Question wording

Will there be a Ukraine–Russia ceasefire agreement by end of 2026?

Resolution window

Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC

Confidence: medium

Assets and settlement

Assets: Ukraine

Chain: Polygon · Collateral: USDC

Best liquidity right now

Polymarket currently shows the deepest visible liquidity at $3.2M.

Resolution details

Cross-venue spread: 4 percentage points across 2 venues.

Resolution trigger

A formal ceasefire or armistice between Ukraine and Russia must be in effect before the cutoff.

Resolution source

Official government announcements and verified international reporting.

Restrictions

US persons may be blocked by source platform

Related listings

Related listings show the same market across different venues so you can compare odds, liquidity, and trade on the best-priced platform.

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FAQ

What is the current probability for "Ukraine–Russia ceasefire agreement by end of 2026"?

As of this page load, Polymarket prices this at 68% and Kalshi at 64%. Cross-venue probability differences reflect liquidity and market-maker pricing differences.

How does Mantis compare prediction market odds across venues?

Mantis runs a single natural-language search across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, SX Bet, and PredictIt simultaneously. It normalises market identifiers across venues and displays probability, liquidity, and spread side by side so you can find the best available price without switching tabs.

Can I trade this market directly from Mantis?

Mantis is a routing and comparison layer — not a trading venue. Click any venue link to trade directly on that platform with your existing account. Mantis preserves your referral attribution on every outbound link.