~72% · $280K/day
Will Google Search maintain 85%+ global market share through 2026?
AI search competitors (ChatGPT, Perplexity) pressuring share
AI Prediction Markets
Google Gemini & AI Prediction Markets — 2026
Search market share at 72%, Apple deal loss at 28%, Gemini beating GPT-5 at 34%, Google Cloud $50B at 62%. Google prediction markets price every AI and antitrust milestone — and the Apple search deal is a $20B/year binary event. Compare cross-venue Google odds in one search.
Top Google & Gemini Prediction Markets 2026
~28% · $380K/day
Will Google lose its default search engine agreement with Apple in 2026?
DOJ antitrust remedy market — $20B/year revenue risk
~34% · $220K/day
Will Gemini 2.0 Ultra surpass GPT-5 on MMLU or comparable benchmarks?
AI capability competition market
~62% · $190K/day
Will Google Cloud reach $50B+ ARR in 2026?
Google Cloud growing >30% YoY
~48% · $240K/day
Will GOOGL stock exceed $200 by end of 2026?
Current ~$165 — AI + ad revenue thesis
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FAQ
What Google AI prediction markets are available in 2026?
Active Google prediction markets cover: Search market share above 85% (~72%), losing the Apple default search deal (~28%), Gemini surpassing GPT-5 (~34%), Google Cloud reaching $50B ARR (~62%), and GOOGL stock hitting $200 (~48%). The Apple search deal market is the highest-stakes Google market — DOJ antitrust remedies could strip $20B/year from Google's bottom line.
Will Google lose its Apple search deal following the antitrust ruling?
The DOJ antitrust case against Google identified the Apple default search agreement as a key anticompetitive practice. Prediction markets price Google losing this deal in 2026 at ~28%. Remedies are expected in late 2025-2026. If Apple replaces Google with Bing, Perplexity, or its own AI search, it would be the most significant disruption to Google's revenue in its history.
How does Gemini compare to ChatGPT on prediction markets?
Prediction markets price Gemini 2.0 surpassing GPT-5 on major benchmarks at ~34%. Google has the compute advantage (TPUs + cloud infrastructure) and multimodal data advantage (YouTube, Maps, Search data). But OpenAI's product mindshare and user adoption lead mean pure benchmark wins don't necessarily translate to market share. Both the capability and adoption markets are tracked by Mantis.
Which venues have Google AI prediction markets?
Polymarket leads for Google antitrust, Gemini capability, and GOOGL stock prediction markets. Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) covers Google revenue milestones and regulatory outcome markets for US traders. Limitless occasionally carries niche Google ecosystem markets. Mantis aggregates all venues for cross-venue Google market comparison.