~68% · $580K/day
Will the US maintain 25%+ tariffs on most Chinese goods through end of 2026?
Tariff persistence market — trade negotiation baseline
Macro Prediction Markets
US Tariffs & Trade War Prediction Markets — 2026
Will US-China tariffs stay above 25%? Will there be a trade deal? Will the EU get hit next? Tariff prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price every major trade policy outcome — with cross-venue spreads of 4-8 points. Mantis shows the full picture in one search.
Top US Tariff & Trade Prediction Markets 2026
~22% · $420K/day
Will the US and China reach a new trade deal in 2026?
Deal = comprehensive tariff reduction framework
~38% · $290K/day
Will the US impose new tariffs on the EU in 2026?
Transatlantic trade conflict market
~44% · $180K/day
Will US tariff revenue exceed $500B in fiscal year 2026?
Revenue milestone — tariff-as-revenue strategy
~35% · $160K/day
Will US-China trade volume fall more than 20% in 2026 vs 2023?
Trade decoupling market
What drives the 2026 tariff odds
The forces moving trade-policy markets — each can reprice tariff persistence and trade-deal odds within a news cycle.
US trade policy & elections
Executive tariff authority means rates can change by announcement; the 2026 midterms shape the political appetite for escalation.
Negotiation cycles
Deal/no-deal headlines with China and the EU swing the trade-deal market sharply; deadlines are the flashpoints.
Inflation pass-through
Tariffs feed CPI directly; a hot inflation print raises the political cost of new tariffs and links to the Fed path.
Retaliation & supply chains
Counter-tariffs and decoupling reshape trade volumes — the trade-volume and revenue markets track that.
Related Hubs
Macro
Inflation & CPI
Tariffs drive CPI — inflation prediction markets
Macro
Recession 2026
Trade war escalation raises recession risk — connected macro markets
Politics
Mexico 2026
US tariffs on Mexico — the top US trading partner
AI
Semiconductors 2026
Chip export controls — the highest-stakes trade front
FAQ
What do prediction markets say about US-China tariffs in 2026?
Prediction markets price the US maintaining 25%+ tariffs on most Chinese goods at ~68% through end of 2026, with $580K in daily Polymarket volume. A comprehensive US-China trade deal (requiring significant tariff reductions) is priced at only ~22% — reflecting the deep structural nature of the trade conflict. US tariffs on the EU are a separate risk at ~38%.
How do tariff prediction markets connect to inflation and recession markets?
Tariffs are a direct pass-through to consumer prices — higher tariffs = higher CPI. Prediction markets for US tariff levels, CPI inflation, and recession are all correlated. When tariff markets price escalation, CPI markets tend to price higher inflation, and recession probability markets often rise. Mantis tracks all three in one search.
Are there prediction markets for specific trade conflict outcomes?
Yes. Beyond US-China tariffs, active trade prediction markets include: EU retaliatory tariff announcements, WTO ruling timelines, specific sector tariffs (autos, semiconductors, steel), and USMCA renegotiation milestones. Polymarket and Kalshi both carry these markets, often with 3-6 point price divergence between venues.
Which venues have the best US trade policy prediction markets?
Polymarket leads for trade policy markets with the deepest liquidity on US-China tariff contracts. Kalshi covers US trade policy outcomes for US institutional traders. Limitless carries some WTO and bilateral trade agreement markets. Mantis aggregates all venues and shows the cross-venue spread for any trade market in one search.
How do the 2026 midterms affect tariff prediction markets?
US tariff policy runs largely on executive authority, but the political appetite for escalation shifts with the electoral calendar. A midterm result that changes control of Congress can alter the odds of new tariffs or a trade deal — so the tariff markets often move on midterm read-throughs. Mantis cross-links the 2026 midterms hub for that connection.
Why is the US-China trade-deal market priced so low?
A comprehensive deal requires resolving structural disputes — IP, subsidies, tech transfer, and security — not just tariff levels, so prediction markets price it near 22% versus ~68% for tariffs simply persisting. The wide gap reflects that a tactical pause is far more likely than a durable settlement. Trading both contracts together expresses a view on tactical vs structural de-escalation.