~34% · $680K/day
Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal or framework in 2026?
Diplomacy market — Trump-Iran talks ongoing
Politics Prediction Markets
Iran Nuclear & Sanctions Prediction Markets — 2026
Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal? Will Israel strike? Will sanctions be lifted? Iran prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price every scenario — nuclear deal at 34%, Israeli strike at 18%, sanctions relief at 22%. These markets move instantly with diplomatic signals.
Top Iran Prediction Markets 2026
~22% · $420K/day
Will the US lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for nuclear limits in 2026?
Harder threshold than a deal framework
~18% · $580K/day
Will Israel conduct a military strike on Iran in 2026?
Escalation risk market — Israeli capability clear
~28% · $340K/day
Will Iran enrich uranium above 90% (weapons-grade) in 2026?
Breakout capability market
~45% · $190K/day
Will Iran's oil exports exceed 2M barrels/day in 2026?
Sanctions evasion / relief market
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FAQ
What do prediction markets say about a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2026?
Prediction markets price a US-Iran nuclear deal or framework at ~34% in 2026, with sanctions relief at a harder ~22% threshold. The Trump administration has engaged in back-channel talks through Oman in 2025-2026, raising deal probability from single-digit levels in 2024. The sticking points are Iran's enrichment level and the pace of sanctions removal. Polymarket has $680K in daily volume on the deal market.
What is the probability of an Israeli military strike on Iran in 2026?
Prediction markets price an Israeli military strike on Iran at ~18% in 2026 — meaningful but not the base case. This market is sensitive to Iranian enrichment news, US-Iran diplomatic signals, and Israeli domestic political developments. When Iran enrichment markets rise (weapons-grade approach), Israeli strike markets tend to rise simultaneously. Mantis tracks both.
How do Iran prediction markets affect oil price markets?
Iran sanctions relief (allowing Iran to export ~2M+ bbl/day more oil) would be one of the largest near-term supply additions to the global market, potentially pushing WTI down $5-10/barrel. Prediction markets for Iran deals and oil price targets are inversely correlated — Mantis lets you monitor both simultaneously to see how geopolitical events affect commodity markets.
Which prediction market venues cover Iran markets?
Polymarket has the highest Iran market liquidity — the nuclear deal market sees $680K in daily volume. Kalshi covers some Iran-related macro outcome markets for US traders. Limitless carries niche Iran diplomatic status markets. Mantis aggregates all venues so you always see the sharpest cross-venue price for any Iran geopolitics question.