~34% · $680K/day
Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal or framework in 2026?
Diplomacy market — Trump-Iran talks ongoing
Politics Prediction Markets
Iran Nuclear & Sanctions Prediction Markets — 2026
Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal? Will Israel strike? Will sanctions be lifted? Iran prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price every scenario — nuclear deal at 34%, Israeli strike at 18%, sanctions relief at 22%. These markets move instantly with diplomatic signals.
Top Iran Prediction Markets 2026
~22% · $420K/day
Will the US lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for nuclear limits in 2026?
Harder threshold than a deal framework
~18% · $580K/day
Will Israel conduct a military strike on Iran in 2026?
Escalation risk market — Israeli capability clear
~28% · $340K/day
Will Iran enrich uranium above 90% (weapons-grade) in 2026?
Breakout capability market
~45% · $190K/day
Will Iran's oil exports exceed 2M barrels/day in 2026?
Sanctions evasion / relief market
What drives the 2026 Iran odds
The forces moving the nuclear, sanctions, and conflict markets — each reprices on a single diplomatic or military headline.
US-Iran diplomacy
Back-channel talks (via Oman) and US posture drive the deal and sanctions-relief markets — the central swing factor.
Enrichment progress
Moves toward weapons-grade (90%) enrichment raise the breakout and Israeli-strike markets together.
Israel’s calculus
Israeli capability is clear; the strike market hinges on enrichment news and the diplomatic window.
Oil & sanctions
Sanctions relief would add ~2M bbl/day of supply — directly inverse to the oil price markets.
Related Hubs
Politics
Ukraine 2026
Ceasefire 68% — the other major conflict market, $3.2M/day
Macro
Oil 2026
Iran sanctions relief would add 2M bbl/day to supply — oil market impact
Politics
Venezuela 2026
The other major oil-supply geopolitics market
FAQ
What do prediction markets say about a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2026?
Prediction markets price a US-Iran nuclear deal or framework at ~34% in 2026, with sanctions relief at a harder ~22% threshold. The Trump administration has engaged in back-channel talks through Oman in 2025-2026, raising deal probability from single-digit levels in 2024. The sticking points are Iran's enrichment level and the pace of sanctions removal. Polymarket has $680K in daily volume on the deal market.
What is the probability of an Israeli military strike on Iran in 2026?
Prediction markets price an Israeli military strike on Iran at ~18% in 2026 — meaningful but not the base case. This market is sensitive to Iranian enrichment news, US-Iran diplomatic signals, and Israeli domestic political developments. When Iran enrichment markets rise (weapons-grade approach), Israeli strike markets tend to rise simultaneously. Mantis tracks both.
How do Iran prediction markets affect oil price markets?
Iran sanctions relief (allowing Iran to export ~2M+ bbl/day more oil) would be one of the largest near-term supply additions to the global market, potentially pushing WTI down $5-10/barrel. Prediction markets for Iran deals and oil price targets are inversely correlated — Mantis lets you monitor both simultaneously to see how geopolitical events affect commodity markets.
Which prediction market venues cover Iran markets?
Polymarket has the highest Iran market liquidity — the nuclear deal market sees $680K in daily volume. Kalshi covers some Iran-related macro outcome markets for US traders. Limitless carries niche Iran diplomatic status markets. Mantis aggregates all venues so you always see the sharpest cross-venue price for any Iran geopolitics question.
How do the Iran deal and Israeli-strike markets relate to each other?
They are two sides of the same diplomatic window: progress toward a nuclear deal (~34%) tends to lower the Israeli-strike probability (~18%), while a breakdown in talks or a jump in enrichment pushes the strike market up. Trading them together expresses a view on diplomacy-versus-escalation rather than betting on either path alone — Mantis shows both contracts side by side.
Why are Iran markets watched as an oil-supply risk gauge?
Iran is a major OPEC producer under sanctions, so the Iran markets double as a swing-supply signal for crude. Sanctions relief unlocks ~2M bbl/day (bearish for oil); escalation or a strike threatens Gulf supply (bullish). That makes the Iran hub a leading indicator for the oil hub, alongside Venezuela — Mantis cross-links all three.