~57–60% · $420K liquidity
Will Maduro remain president through 2026?
Regime-continuity market — the anchor contract
Politics Prediction Markets
Venezuela 2026 — Prediction Market Odds
Does Maduro hold power? Does the US escalate? Prediction markets price Venezuela’s 2026 political and geopolitical outcomes as binary contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi — and because the country sits on the world’s largest oil reserves, these contracts double as energy-risk gauges. Mantis shows the sharpest cross-venue line in one search.
Top Venezuela Markets 2026
Live cross-venue odds for regime continuity, escalation, and elections. Probability ranges reflect the cross-venue spread as of June 2026 — click any market for real-time quotes.
~17–20% · $300K liquidity
Will the US take military action against Venezuela in 2026?
Escalation risk — watched closely by oil markets
~15–18% · $200K liquidity
Will Venezuela hold a new presidential election in 2026?
Political-transition pathway
What drives the 2026 Venezuela odds
Sanctions & diplomacy
US sanctions policy and oil-license decisions are the biggest levers on regime continuity. Each announcement reprices the Maduro market — and ripples into oil.
Escalation risk
The US-military-action contract is a tail-risk gauge. It spikes on naval deployments, interdiction operations, and hostile rhetoric — watch it as an oil-supply early warning.
Internal transition
Opposition dynamics and any negotiated path to elections drive the new-election market. These are lower-probability but high-impact outcomes.
Related Hubs
Macro
Oil 2026
WTI price markets — directly exposed to Venezuela supply risk
Politics
Iran 2026
Another major geopolitics + oil-risk market
Politics
All Politics Markets
Elections, geopolitics, policy — full politics prediction market index
FAQ
What do prediction markets say about Venezuela in 2026?
As of mid-2026, prediction markets price Nicolás Maduro remaining president through 2026 at roughly 57–60% on Polymarket, US military action against Venezuela near 17–20%, and a new presidential election around 15–18%. These geopolitics markets move sharply on sanctions, diplomatic, and military headlines — Mantis shows the live cross-venue spread.
Why do traders watch the Venezuela markets?
Venezuela sits on the world’s largest proven oil reserves, so escalation or regime change has direct energy-market implications. The US-military-action and Maduro-continuity contracts are read as oil-supply risk gauges as much as political bets — which is why they draw cross-asset attention. Mantis lets you watch them alongside the oil hub.
Where can I trade Venezuela prediction markets?
Polymarket and Kalshi both list Venezuela political and geopolitical outcomes as binary contracts. Polymarket carries deeper liquidity on the headline Maduro and US-action markets. Mantis queries both venues in real time and routes you to the best price with referral codes intact.
How do these Venezuela markets resolve?
Each resolves on an objective event — whether Maduro is the sitting president at the cutoff, whether a direct US military action occurred, or whether a new presidential election was held — per verified international reporting and official confirmations, following each market’s rules. Ambiguity in those definitions between venues is where cross-venue gaps appear.