~72% · $380K/day
Will Anthropic release Claude 5 or a major next-gen model in 2026?
Model release cadence market
AI Prediction Markets
Anthropic & Claude Prediction Markets — 2026
Claude 5 release at 72%, $40B valuation at 55%, ASL-4 safety trigger at 28%. Anthropic prediction markets track every major milestone — from the next Claude model to the IPO that may follow. Compare cross-venue odds in one search on Mantis.
Top Anthropic Prediction Markets 2026
~55% · $290K/day
Will Anthropic achieve a $40B+ valuation in 2026?
Last round: ~$18B (early 2024)
~28% · $340K/day
Will Anthropic reach ASL-4 (near-AGI) safety level by end of 2026?
Key safety milestone — triggers deployment pause review
~18% · $220K/day
Will Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users in 2026?
Market share battle — ChatGPT has ~100M MAU
~42% · $180K/day
Will Anthropic file for an IPO by end of 2027?
Liquidity event market for investors
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OpenAI IPO
OpenAI restructuring 72%, IPO 28% — parallel AI company market
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AGI 2026
Anthropic ASL-4 connects directly to the AGI timeline markets
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LLM Markets
GPT-5, Gemini, Claude — full AI model prediction market hub
FAQ
What prediction markets exist for Anthropic and Claude in 2026?
Active Anthropic prediction markets cover: Claude model releases (next-gen model by year-end ~72%), valuation milestones ($40B+ at ~55%), ASL-4 safety level achievement (~28%), and eventual IPO timing. These markets are highly correlated with the broader AI capability timeline markets and move significantly on major model releases or safety announcements.
What is Anthropic's ASL-4 safety level and why does it matter for prediction markets?
Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy defines ASL (AI Safety Level) thresholds. ASL-4 represents near-AGI capability — a level where Anthropic's policy requires pausing deployment for safety review. Prediction markets price ASL-4 achievement at ~28% by end of 2026. If triggered, it would be a major signal for AGI timeline markets across all venues.
How do Anthropic prediction markets relate to OpenAI and AGI markets?
Anthropic (Claude), OpenAI (GPT), and Google DeepMind (Gemini) are in a three-way race on AI capabilities. Prediction markets for Claude surpassing ChatGPT (~18%), OpenAI IPO (~28% in 2026), and AGI achievement (~8-12% by 2026) are all interconnected. A major capability leap by one lab tends to move all AI company prediction markets. Mantis tracks all of them simultaneously.
Which venues carry Anthropic prediction markets?
Polymarket has the deepest Anthropic market liquidity for model release and capability markets. Kalshi covers some AI company valuation milestones. Limitless carries niche Anthropic safety and research milestone markets. Mantis aggregates all venues — search any Anthropic or Claude question at mantiss.store.