~42% · $380K/day
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record globally?
Following record-breaking 2023 and 2024
Macro Prediction Markets
Climate & Energy Prediction Markets — 2026
2026 hottest year at 42%, Paris Agreement withdrawal at 68%, US 100GW clean energy at 55%, CO2 peak at 28%. Climate prediction markets on Polymarket track every major environmental policy and physical climate milestone. Compare cross-venue climate odds in one search.
Top Climate & Energy Prediction Markets 2026
~68% · $290K/day
Will the US formally withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2026?
Trump executive action market
~55% · $180K/day
Will US solar + wind capacity additions exceed 100GW in 2026?
Clean energy milestone despite policy headwinds
~28% · $220K/day
Will global CO2 emissions peak in 2026?
Long-awaited emissions inflection point market
~35% · $160K/day
Will Arctic sea ice set a new all-time minimum in 2026?
Climate tipping point indicator market
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FAQ
What climate prediction markets are available on Polymarket in 2026?
Active climate prediction markets include: 2026 global temperature record (~42% on Polymarket), US Paris Agreement withdrawal (~68%), US clean energy capacity milestones, global CO2 emissions peak (~28%), and Arctic sea ice extent markets. The Paris Agreement market is the most policy-sensitive — it moves directly with Trump administration announcements.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Prediction markets price 2026 as the hottest year on record at ~42%. 2023 and 2024 both set new global temperature records, driven by El Niño and background warming trends. A neutral or La Niña year in 2026 could reduce this probability, while continued El Niño conditions would increase it. Polymarket's climate temperature market sees $380K in daily volume during key announcement periods.
Will the US formally leave the Paris Climate Agreement in 2026?
Prediction markets price US formal Paris Agreement withdrawal at ~68% in 2026. The Trump administration has signalled this action and the withdrawal process typically takes 12 months. This market is among the highest-confidence political policy markets on Polymarket because the executive action is within the president's unilateral authority.
Do clean energy markets outperform despite policy headwinds?
Yes. Despite US climate policy uncertainty, clean energy deployment markets (solar + wind capacity additions) are priced at ~55% for exceeding 100GW in 2026. Electricity demand growth (from AI data centers, EVs) and falling technology costs have made clean energy economically competitive independent of policy support. These technology adoption markets are more stable than policy markets.